NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – Entering its fifth year Monday, the U.S. stock bull market follows four consecutive years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low on October 12, 2022. That session saw the index close at 3,577.03, which was its lowest point since November 2020. On Friday, the index closed at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% increase for 2026 and approaching record levels, with a weekly gain of 1.2%.
This latest bull market is the 11th since the 1950s in the historical record, and it is the seventh to last at least four years. The 119% growth remains below the average increase of 184% seen across the studied bull markets. Historically, earlier cycles produced much larger cumulative gains, with the 2009-to-2020 period rising 401% and the 1987-to-2000 cycle climbing 582%. These periods are among the strongest in historical comparisons.
Many past bull markets have continued positively through this stage. Out of the previous 10, six lasted beyond four years. For those reaching a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median gain of 15%. The study also notes an average maximum drawdown of approximately 14% during fifth years. These figures reflect past market behaviors and do not guarantee the same results for the current cycle.
Earnings growth underpins current market resilience
During the latest phase of the rally, corporate earnings have shown notable strength. FactSet reported that S&P 500 third-quarter earnings as of October 9 were tracking 29.6% higher than the same period last year. This would mark the third consecutive quarter with year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. The growth rate was 29.2% at the end of the quarter on September 30. Of 19 index companies reporting by October 9, 84% beat analysts’ average earnings estimates, with aggregate earnings surpassing estimates by 4.9%.
Expectations for the remainder of the year remain high. Analysts project fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings to increase by 27.6% compared to the previous year. The full-year 2026 earnings growth forecast stands at 32.4%. Semiconductor and hardware companies contribute about 40% of the upward revisions to 2026 estimates and approximately 75% of the revisions to 2027 estimates so far this year, according to Barclays research. The data indicates that technology-related sectors continue to be central to earnings adjustments.
Higher interest rates remain a key market factor
The upward trend in equities persists amid rising U.S. interest rates and elevated government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. The central bank indicated that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, and inflation remained high. For 2026, the median economic growth projection is 2.3%, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields continue to hover near multi-year peaks as the bull market enters its fifth year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.24% on October 9, while the 30-year yield was 5.60%. The S&P 500 closed that session 0.6% higher at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%. Stocks are approaching the five-year mark near record levels, supported by strong earnings growth and borrowing costs above earlier bull-market levels.